Aug 22, 2007
Most people engage in strategies with low volatility but high risk. Demand for certainty is an intellectual vice.

Be fooled in small matters, not in the large. Rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.

Lose small to make big. If you are in the military, in catastrophe insurance, or in banking and lending, or in homeland security, you face only downside. Examples of positive-Black Swan businesses are: movies, some segments of publishing, scientific research, and venture capital.

Living in cities is invaluable because you increase the odds of serendipitous encounters. Diplomats understand this well: big breakthroughs come from casual chance discussions at cocktail parties, not dry correspondence or telephone conversations. Go to parties!

When you hear a ‘prominent’ economist use the word equilibrium or normal distribution, do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.

NNT’s words to live by (chapter thirteen)
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